THE FULHAM by-election showed three things: that there is an desire to get rid of the Thatcher ment at the next election, that Neil Kinnock is leading Labour to one of the greatest disasters in its history, and that socialists still remain very much a minority within the working class. basis of the policy of the labour movement.
There is no doubt that the Fulham result was extremely_serious for the Tories. claims of Tebbit and others, and talk in the press of a 'normal mid-term swing, by 10 per cent compared to the general election.
There is nothing in the political situation which points to a substantial revival of Tory support before the election. Doubtless there will be some regaining of ground by the Conservatives compared to Fulham but at the next election the would make 197479 look small in comparison.
Consider the situation if a majority govern. ment under Kinnock were formed. Labour today las no economic policies capable of eliminating even significantly The next Labour gov more than three million unemployed which is not merely despicable in itself but which would be a catastrophe in terms of mass support.
ons against South Africa. He would allow ases to remain, creating the conditions for ne US aggressin as against Libya.
Such a government would lead to an electoral disaster for Labour and prepare the way for a new right wing Tory government.
But the reality is that Kinnock is not even likely to have the opportunity to pursue this with a majority government. still not a good enough result to secure a Labour majority.
Even in the crudest terms, the 11 per cent increase in the Labour vote at Fulham is not quite enough to secure an overall Labour majority But it is also clear that the Fulham pattern would not be repeated in a general election.
Firstly the resources put into Fulham could never be repeated in a general election. were around 2000 helpers for the Labour Party in Fulham on election day.
Secondly ritory for the Alliance in terms of the social make up of the constituency. the vote still advanced marginally compared to the election. Given a much more favourable constituency at the West Derbyshire and Ryedale -vote is going to advance further.
If Neil Kinnock does not win an overall majority at the election then everyone knows once more that the pressure will be on for coalition -coalition that would not simply disaster for Labour but would also be followed by the return of a right wing Tory government.
The left must identify powerful sentiment which is building up, and will be greatly encouraged by Fulham, which wants to see the return of a Labour governmet at the next election and believes that is possible. That is the goal of all of us. But there must be no illusions as to what a Labour government on pre sent policies would mean.
the overwhelming the All three have to form the Despite the Tory support tell the debacle of will preside over — a policy Because Fulham was There