ACTION THE LEADERSHIP campaign will be a hard one. It will require real left organisation in the constituencies. A glance at the arithmetic shows where the key areas will be. JOHN ROSS assesses the tight ahead. THE KEY area in the leadership contest will be in the CLPs. The vote of the Yorkshire NUM to support Kinnock and Prescott for seacer ana deputy leader makes it still more clear that there will be no significant union vole lor benn and Heffer. The crucial area will Deme constituencies and the parliamentary party.
PLP -Inside the PLP the exact number of MPs who will vote for Benn/Hetter is not clear. But as the PLP has 30 per cent of the electoral college, the Campaign Group had slightly over 40 members before the recent resignations, we would anticipate around 5 per cent of the electoral college vote Trom The Dee CasL Or Benn/Heffer. As their trade union vote will be minimal this means that for the leadership contenders to win 20 per cent of the elecoral college they ha to in one half of the CLPs 5 per cent of the electora olleg Taking the CLPs, then, on the basis of the previous years voting for the NEC they are fairly evenly split between the Campaign Group on one side and the combination of right wing and 'soft left' on the other with the right being much the stronger of the latter two. The Campaign Group has a small majcrity over the right wing and soft left combined and on Kinnock the right wing and soft left will vote together. the constituency section, McCluskie for and Boothroyd and Dunwoody for the women's section. That is 24 per cent of constituencies which voted last year.
This correlates almost exacuy win une resur luc last time two left wing candidates ran for a single post, treasurer in 1986. Then Ken Livingstone Gavin Strang received 75 per cent of the vote between them.
There is, therefore, hard core of 25 per cent of the CLPs which vote a right wing slate and will support Hattersley. much outside that. There is no reason to think that Kinnock will be able to pull much for his deputy, given the deep personal unpopularity of Hattersle rescott in a seconu roul against Hattersle! would probably pick up 70-75 pe cent of the CLP vote -is 22.5 per cent of the electoral college.
Prescott
In the PLP Prescott should pick up a minimum second round and more likely up to electoral college With approximately 35 er cent of the electoral colege vote from the CLPs and PLP Prescott only needs to pick up 15 out of 40 per cent from the trade union section of the electoral college • cigal per cent being accounted for b!
the TGWU alone.
In short, not only does views on the key issues. Where, for example, does he stand on economic policy - he is a member of the policy revien committee which is almost Clay 202 Lo Conc Le horrifyingly right wing ConclusIons Regions When it comes to the regions the situation is extremely uneven. The regions really divided info two London Yorkshire, East Total CLIS In Region region Yorkshire North west East Midlands West Midlands Eastern Sonneri South West Wales Scotland TotalCLES In Region Northern YOrKSHIr North West East Midlands West Midlands master Southern South West Wales Scotland Total Excluding no vote Party conference delegates in 1981 when the deputy leadership was announced.
Midlands, and North West are dominated by the Campaign Group. Here it is an issue of getting out the vote.
the other regions organisation to win over 'marginal' constituencies which means those thin king OI voting nock/Prescott, is required.
When it comes to such organisation Dy most effective grouping for aelvering voles m tne part. in the last years has been the Run between Laboul Left Liaison and the CamIn last DaLI Group Didn't vote 67.
Didn't * 1 vote -10 -11 voted for Group/LLL candidates compared to 9 who voted for only LCC backed candidates for example.
Key issues concauv ne leader ship campaign will be running in lanaem will wo other key issues — the campaign against the Aims and Values' document and that against the economic polics document. These must be brought into the centre of une cade suo calibale CLPs voting for the following number of Campaign Group candidates - N 88* % of CLPs voting for the following number of • Campaign Group candidates 14° 16°
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year's elections 88 CLPs Voting in the constituency section of the 1987 NEC elections
* Includes 5 CL.Ps which voted for only Campaign Group candidates but less than 7 LL Ca Cidataign