FOLLOWING the invasion of Grenada, Reagan is stepping up the pressure against Nicaragua. Rumours from Washington suggest that the American plan is to try to capture a Nicaraguan town from which to proclaim a 'provisional government' of counter-revolutionaries. Reagan wants this 'provisional government' in place by December or January.
The most dramatic sign of the military build-up has been the attacks on oil installations in Nicaragua, which have crippled the country's oil supplies. But the United States is preparing for even more spectacular military intervention.
By Phil Hearse
The huge US fleet sent last July is still in place off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Some of these ships are cruising within 12 miles of Nicaragua. Provocations and incursions have been staged into Nicaragua territorial waters. These ships have on board sea-to-land missiles and nearly 200 planes.
There are now 6000 US troops stationed in Honduras, and they will remain in that country until at least July 1984. These troops are not in Honduras to simply carry out training exercises with Honduran troops. Already a sixty-room military hospital has been established at the US barracks, a sure sign of the possibility of US battle casualties in the near future.
At the same time, the United States has reactivated the Central America military alliance, CONDECA. This process has been facilitated by the overthrow of the Guatemalan dictator Rioss Montt, in an American backed coup, after Montt opposed CONDECA.
The total number of counter-revolutionary 'contra' troops is now reckoned at around 8000. Most of these are part of the FDN ('Nicaraguan Democratic Front') mercenary group operating from Honduras. They have failed in the effort started earlier this year to occupy a strip of land near the northern town of Jalapa from which they intended to proclaim a provisional government.
The new tactic is terror against the health and educational facilities established by the revolution in the more remote parts of the country. Through this the 'contras' hope to subdue and terrorise the local population and disrupt the efforts to raise the material welfare of the people.
Since the failure of the FDN's offensive, the CIA has been giving more attention to the ARDE (Revolutionary Democratic Alliance) forces of Eden Pastora, based in Costa Rica. It now seems that Pastora himself has been ousted from the leadership of this organisation, since he displayed too much autonomy from the aims of the CIA.
A huge counter-revolutionary strike could now be launched from Costa Rica, with US naval and air support, with precisely the intention of capturing a town to be used by a US-puppet 'provisional' government. Following the Grenadian scenario, there could easily be a 'request' for US intervention from neighbouring governments.
Jaime Wheelock, one of the FSLN leaders, has estimated that a total of 600 Nicaraguans have now been killed by counter-revolutionary attacks. To prepare for the fight to come, Nicaragua has now brought in conscription to bolster the armed forces. The first units will be organised on 1 January 1984, and involve between 20,000 and 30,000 Nicaraguans.
Conscription will of course weaken Nicaragua's economic effort. But this is an inevitable effect of having to concentrate so much effort on defence. Without doubt, part of the US destabilisation plan is to try to create disillusionment with the FSLN leadership through economic dislocation and hardship.
The response of the FSLN has been to deepen the mass mobilisation and mass organisation of the Nicaraguan people, to prepare both politically and militarily for an imperialist attack. The people's militias have been strengthened, as have the other mass organisations.
Now more than ever it is vital to strengthen the movement of solidarity with the revolution in Central America and the Caribbean to prevent a recurrence of what happened to Grenada. Even Margaret Thatcher, despite her open support for the US anti-communist hysteria, has come out against an invasion of Nicaragua. Her hypocritical words won't stop Reagan. Mass solidarity world-wide can.