loses?
Beirut. The withdrawal of toe me nesestige of the prestige United States in the whole Middle East region.
The heavy guns firing from the New Jersey firing 1n Tury potence, but will have no effect on the outcome.
President Assad of Syria is the big winner on scene.
Since Assad used domination of events ensure that Syria would be central to any peace settlement in tae legion.
The finances military power of the Syrian dictatorship depend on the Tole Syria Arab State in the confron- olays as the 'front line' with Israel. of money alices the purchase Gulf states finance of Soviet equip ment, and bank-roll military burcaullary which assures Assad's power.
By ensuring that proSyrian forces the whip hand in Assad makes sure that the United States or anyone else seeking a peace settlement have to deal him in on the card game.
Syria is hardly a Soviet But given that the iet Union is the mạin military backer of Syria, Russian influence in the region bound to be strengthened.
the ground obviousiv Amal and the Shi'ite community are the big winners. Amal fundementalist movement same way as Khomeini's Iran is fundamenIt does not demand Gemayel the reconstruction of the state on an Islamic basis, of power for the Shites share Amal's leader Nabih Berri is a bourgeois politician who will want strong Amal representation it yens likely that Both he But Walid Jumblatt, cept a Christian Maronite president return more power their respective movements.
the ground Lebanon the main change is thed i banese Army. I is the will mean ine chu vr al tempts to impose central control of covericl Muslim areas.
plexion ot simply reverted to th re-1982 sit aton. The strength the Sunni Muslim 2110 leftist Arab nationalist forces has drastically decreased. West Beirut. belore the Israeli invasion, trolled Sunnis orces and the PLO. Now the remnants of the nationalists forces have to Amal presence in west Beirut, despite the fact that few Shi'ites actually live there.
sense this represents regression on the pre-1982 the salaton. Druze PSP anti imperialist forces. Their leaders want a bigger slice of the cake, but they not want socialist They are quite provided own power and influence. CLOPISO The big loser among the Lebanese forces is the itias. The but- its fascist militias.
chers of Karantina, Tal alSabra Chatila got a bloody nos the Battle of Beirut. Their defeat opens a new situation in gressive anti-imperialist forces will have more space to organise an The experience of tran shows us that a big defeat imperialist reaction and necessarily ODCH the way for working class ad But it opens up tha possibility valle if all forms reaction trenchantly fought. That is the task lIUM faces the Lebanese left. ment to different Arab nationalism in Nasserism in Egypt. tervention of US marines. 1970. 'Black September' in Jordan.
haven of Lebanon.
is leading to civil war.
ed between Muslim 1943. Lebanon gets independence from France. National Covenant distributes power in governreligious communities, but Christian Maronites get the dominant power. 1958. Druze-Muslim rebellion, inspired by rise of Middle East, especially Revolt is put down by inPalestinian fighters and refugees flee from Hussein's terror to PLO forms alliance with Lebanese leftists and Arab nationalists. 1973. Israeli commandos attack PLO leaders in Beirut. Lebanese army does not interfere. Mass demonstrations by Muslims and Palestinians accuse government of complicity. Communal strife 1975-6. Open civil war breaks out. Beirut is dividWest and Christian East. defend Maronites. of south as base to attack Israel.
After withdrawal, raids against Palestinian and Muslim areas.
Amin. vides arms to anti-Gemayel forces. May 1983. Gemayal agreement with Israelis, forces prepare for show down. Christians massacre Palestinians at Karantina and Tal al-Zatar. Palestinians and leftists are on the verge of complete victory when Syria intervenes to Much of north and east of country occupied by Syria, but PLO occupies part 1978. First Israeli invasion, 25 miles into Lebanon.
Israe! launches constant air 1982. Israeli invasion. West Beirut holds out for 10 weeks. Arafat takes decision to pull out PLO. İsraelis install Bashir Gamayel as President; after Bashir is assassinated he is replaced by his brother Phalangists carry out massacre at Sabra and Chatila. Split develops in the PLO. Syria prosigns "troops withdrawal which in fact sanctions their occupation in south Lebanon. Anti-Gemayel
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