THERE are few things more humorous than capitalist political columnists trying to make a 'serious' analysis of a political situation. Last week's rush of editorials in the Times, the Telegraph, the Sunday Times and other papers criticising Thatcher for 'dictatorial methods', 'personal remoteness' and so on could have been predicted in advance.
The political script we are being presented with in the press today is the following. 'At the very peak of her popularity in June 1983 the seeds of Thatcher's future problems were planted. She had become proud and detached. mysteriously been replaced by bad luck. Politics TUll of good luck has suddenly is taking its inevitable revenge for excessive pride and excessive success.' The reality is completely different. It is Thatcher's failures, not her excessive successes, which are causing her problems. In fact, behind the appearances, Thatcher has now suffered three crucial defeats since June. The cumulative effect of these came together in the last weeks and produced a clear change in politics.
The first setback - strangely enough - was the June election itself. Thatcher had hoped to achieve not only a crushing defeat of Labour - in which she succeeded but also a rebuilding of the mass support of the Tory Party. At the beginning of the campaign Thatcher let it be known that she wanted to be the first Prime Minister since the Second World War to secure over 50 per cent of the vote.
Instead the Conservative poll fell to 42 per cent of the vote - the lowest real percentage of the vote for any government with a safe majority in Parliament in British history. June 1983 was not merely a defeat for Labour but also the end of Thatcher's aim to rebuild mass Tory popularity.
The June election therefore also left Thatcher in a minority position on many issues. She had no popular mandate to destroy local government, to slash the NHS, to eliminate trade union membership as at GCHQ. It is precisely around those areas where Thatcher had not gained popular support that the most damaging 'banana skins and struggles suddenly appeared.
The second goal during and following June had been to eliminate Labour as the chief alternative to the Tories. To redivide politics between two capitalist blocs - the Tories on one side and the Alliance on the other. lhis in turn was defeated both by the overall relation of class forces and by Neil Kinnock's victory as Labour leader and Labour's rise in the opinion polls which followed.
Thatcher and capitalism's third goal was to eliminate the Labour left as a serious force. To 'extirpate' Bennism as a political force as The Times put it. That hope in turn was defeated in Chesterfield last week.
It is the coming together of these three processes that resulted in the sharp turn in British politics that has taken place in the last tew weeks. From June 1983 to February 1984 it was Thatcher who was on the political offensive and the movement which had its back against the wall. Today it is Thatcher who finds herself thrown onto the political defensive.
This does not mean that that attacks on the Labour movement are going to let up. Quite the contrary. The Labour movement is still fighting back against the organisational attacks launched on it. But politically it is now Thatcher who is on the defensive.
The explanation of Thatcher's 'banana skin' is not excessive pride. It is the underlying relation of class forces continuing to assert itself through the tangled web of British politics.
Editor: ALAN FREEMAN Published weekly except two weeks in August and the last week of December.
Signed articles by contributors do not necessarily represent Socialist Action's views. These are expressed in editorials. seno a correspondence regaraino subscriouons. sales and receipts to Socialist Action Distribution, 328 Upper Street London NI 2XP. (Tel: 01-359 8180) Send all material for publication (including advertising) to Socialist Action Editorial at the same address. We regret that due to the high cost of postage we cannot return or acknowledge unsolicited copy or photographs unless accompanied by a stamped addressed envelope. WHEN TONY BENN was defeated in the general election last year Margaret Thatcher expressed her 'great satisfaction'. At the British embassy in Washington a great cheer went up from British and American guests when news of Benn's defeat came through. It was a cheer which echoed through all the institutions of the establishment. They glorified in Labour's defeat and Benn's eviction from Parliament as the defeat of the Labour left.
Today Tory smirks are on the other side of their faces. Not only was Tony Benn re-elected to Parliament but the Conservative vote in Chesterfield collapsed dramatically.
Nor is this an isolated to fight to remove Kinevent. In Islington recently nock. the Conservative vote also To put forward that coladoseo favour of the Alliance in a arasticaly assume a political polaris. sualcoy would be Labour stronghold. With ation divide which Thatcher's 'banana skins' multiplying the Tory Party • aoes nol currenty Labour is still rebuilding cast. is slowly declining in the defeat polls as Labour By voting for Neil support rises. Tony Benn's Kinnock as leader the mass victory was a tribute both of Labour Party and trad increase voted for popularity and to his own party unity The Labour skillful political campaign. and its mass sup The 'silver lining' the port, has not even remote Tory and Alliance pundits Îy broken out of that mood are attempting to find in yet. the Chesterfield result Is Indeed Tony Benn's twofold. First .the argument that this is a 'tame' Canoaal was ful because he correctly so success Tony Benn, forced judged the political mood compromise with the new and situation in the labour icaaersup appear movement. He united in "moderate'. Then 'hiding they action with Kinnock, Hat tersley Healey to his politics' And second, defeat the Tories that after all the propor- as he should. tion of the Labour vote But no one misunderstood wenl general election, down trom and thus the Tony Benn's own postthis can hardly be given as evidence of a great Labour Politics Further, it cannot be seriously suggested that Chesterfield showed campaign U1l anything the way in which the basic other than the party's elec- realities of British politics tion policies including asserting themselves. those such In June 1983 the Labour did he hide his Nor own pereat at the hands ng defeat hands Benn thinks of the future as Tories agonise over Thatcher's failures political positions. Tony British capitalism. But Benn's victory was contrary to the claims of prepared by the popular press surge up the opinion polls Conservative and by his own campaign. The notion of a Benn not mass able popular The Conser consolidate move to the right is foolish LATONS through vative's 42 per cent of the When Denis Healey goe: vote continued a long term to support Tony Benn a decline of Tory support. Chesterfield, and when the This lack of support whole the furthermore expressed leadership 1S forced political reality Thatcher valvarell don't do for out him, of the they did not succeed in winning mass support goodness of their hearts or of local through emencous government, eliminating enthusiasm to have Benn NHS, or tor back in parlament. the democratic right to one can really believe that belong like Ine Cheltenham. On the whole preferred to didae Benn is series of issues clear macandidate jorities opposed to ThatChesterfield. cher exist.
They went to support Benn because, yes. once week's trec call fora day response to last Benn was selected they of action against the trade even with Benn as union ban at GCHO was candidate; but also very strong. It showed the because they knew full very deep hostility to the well that the party ranks government which exists, would never forgive them and the real will to fight if they gave anything less back against it The strugthan wholehearted sup- gle to defend the cities i: port to the cam- Irawing very wide force paign. behind it. The opportunity is there to be grasped by To argue that Benn the labour movement. should not have fully involved the Labour leadership in his campaign is to Tony Benn's victory not a flash in the pan but is Benn, say, in effect, Benn should outcome of the paron Beit structural force in British politics but have campaigned on the vote in Chesterfield, clear- of British politics. one too strong to be pushbasis of challenging the ex- LUCI of has recovered aside by isting party leadership. Or forces in British politics from the massacre of June leadership or the popular in other words, the key Thatcher, for all her ap- but is not surong enough lo press. task of socialists here and parent strength, is slowly form a government. The now in the Labour Party is weakening. The Alliance is Labour lett, and Tony Labour left is on an upstill a minorit! ward curve despite all the attacks Thatcher will carry out and the individual victhe Labour tories she will achieve. It is up to socialists to turn that upward curve into a real the victory in the months to Colic
Socialist Action 9 March 1984
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AcTion banana skin