AcTioN phase of Photo: GM COOKSON SociAlist THE SHOOTING DOWN of an Iranian Phantom jet by Saudi F-15 fighters has brought direct imperialist intervention in the Gulf war much closer. The Iranian plane, allegedly brought down in Saudi Arabia's territorial waters, could not have been atvital Western strategic interests be threatened.
For a long time now the United States has made it clear that it would keep by force Vilal of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the West's oil passes. This new plan for joint action with the French British was probably hatched at the London international summit.
The three and a half veer well which has cost more than 250,000 lives has for most of that time been stalemated. The Iraqi economy has been wreckea, ana tens or lnousanas of have died in human wave attacks.
In order to break the impasse Iran has assembled an army of nearly half a mishon to make conquer push conquer Baghdad' Al time the Iraqis have tempted to make the Iranians pay a high economic price for the war through repeated attacks oil tankers going to iran's Kharg island oil terminal Whatever the West's feigned outrage at the four or five Iranian attacks on shipping going to Iraq, the fact of the matter is that the shipping wa primarily the responsibility of the Iraqis themselves.
Iran seems strangely reluctant to launch an o!fensive. Its reluctance understandable. This Is a make-or-break offensive, in which Iran is ultimately in a no-win situation.
In the first place Iraq has superiority in air power and in ground armaments. Inc war has wrecked its oil industry and through that its huge subventions from the reactionary Arab regimes have paid lor weapon Ieplacements To this, the Soviet Union has now added supplies of ground-to-ground ground-to-air missiles.
But even should the Iranian forces score major military successes, the real last three weeks United States has made 11 abundantly clear that will not stand by and see Iraq's Saddam Hussein's government overthrown.
has secured Saudi permission for the Now it has been revealed that a joint US-Britishuse of airfields for the US air force. A new sodulull of air tankers has already been sent to refuel US jets US naval units have either moved into the Gulf or are waiting outside Lne Straits of Hormuz. In other words, if an Iranian offensive is too successful it will rapidly tace the in of the United •lales.
In any Iran can Last. gain nothing military success in the war except a bit of prestige and minor territorial concessions. Iraq's Shia Muslim community responded at all to the appeals of the Iranian Shi'ite leaders to rise up against Saddam Hussein Badershi Party Saddam's Ba'ath has apparently been successful in presenting the war as an Arab-Iranian war, and the Iraqi Shai community, the majority population, has remained loyal. count the stiff resistance thousands of Iranian workers peasants, many of them of Arab nationality, LOOK arms to defend their towns and Villages in the early stages of the attack. But the rapidly brought under the control the Call al lehran authorities, the popular resistance disarm ed and dispersed.
more than three years the war has been vuused by Lilt barbaric Khomeini dictatorship as a means of whipping up sup port for the regime. But this process too has its limits. Despite a partia revival of the Iranian not profited. The social and economic gains of the working the anti-Shah revolution have all but been wiped out. Disillusionment now widespread.
United States' credibility Middle East has suffered hard knocks since the Saddam Hussein — overthrow of the Shah, the catastrophe of Carter's rescue mission for the US hostages, and the debacle of US intervention in the Nothing would please the hawks in the Pentagon and the State Department more than an opportunity for a display military firepower against Khomeini's regime
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tacked without US co-operation in the form of their AWACS surveillance planes, and US aerial tankers refuelling the Saudi fighters. French plan exists to intervene in the war should